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Wireless
February 21, 2003
What's Next (Wave)?
Andrew M. Seybold
UNITED STATES -- After years of legal wrangling, the
Supreme Court has confirmed that NextWave can hang onto
its vast spectrum assets -- the largest block of unused
spectrum available for next-generation mobile communications.
Since there will not be any new spectrum until 2006
and possibly by 2008, there are many options available
to NextWave.
I have been researching NextWave's options for some
time and have come up with the following scenario for
the company and, as it turns out, for the entire wireless
community.
What should NextWave do with spectrum?
NextWave can sell the spectrum and call it a day, or
as it has said all along, it can build out its network
and make it available for others to resell. However,
there are already six nationwide wireless voice-and-data
networks. Why would NextWave try to raise the capital
needed to build out yet another voice network? Perhaps,
it is time to do something completely different. What
if NextWave decided to build out a nationwide, high-speed
(broadband) data-only network?
What I propose below can propel the US into the forefront
of wireless again. It can be used by all of the existing
wireless operators and attract funding from many sources
-- inside and outside the wireless industry. There are
Internet providers who want to extend their access wirelessly
(AOL, MSN, Yahoo, Earthlink, etc.), and other wireless
operators who are faced with 'build or buy' decisions.
In my scenario, NextWave would fulfill its dream of
a resalable nationwide network by using its spectrum
to build out a cdma2000/1xEV-DO system optimised for
high-speed IP data. NextWave will lead the effort as
the operator with major partners across many industry
segments. All wireless carriers, ISPs and content providers,
who have an interest in broadband data services, can
resell this untethered last-mile network access.
This makes imminent sense since almost all wireless
operators are holding their unused spectrum in reserve
for projected growth in voice services. This is being
done either because of wireline replacement pricing
that has broadly gone into effect over the last few
months or because of lack of sufficient spectrum in
major markets for deploying broadband wireless data
services. These operators can tap into a broadband wireless
data network built out by NextWave at wholesale prices,
in the same way that they buy a wide range of broadband
services and capabilities from Level (3) Communications
and others.
Since Qualcomm's MSM 6500 chipset supports 1xEV-DO,
1xRTT and GSM/GPRS, CDMA and GSM operators can bundle
and resell EV-DO services from NextWave with devices
that will also support voice and data over their existing
networks. They can even provide nationwide roaming outside
of EV-DO coverage areas with either 1xRTT or GPRS on
the same device from day one.
Think about what this could mean to US consumers as
well as the wireless community. There will be a nationwide
high-speed, high-capacity, wide-area network, perhaps
tied into Wi-Fi hotspots. It will be applicable, available
for both mobile and fixed usage (where cable and DSL
are unavailable) at speeds comparable to cable modems
and DSL. There will be aggressive pricing, lots of great
applications and content for the enterprise and consumer
market segments across an amazing array of color-screen
devices from camera phones to PDAs to laptops, tablet
PCs, gaming consoles, set-top boxes and more.
Turbo charging development in the US
As it has in Korea and Japan, this approach can turbo
charge development of wireless content/applications
and devices in the US. This is not a case of 'if we
build it, they will come'. Rather, it is a case of at
least a few key players, including NextWave, coming
together and make it happen. They will have access to
the one economically viable network that will deliver
content and services to consumers and business customers
at attractive prices. Companies will be able to differentiate
service offerings with their existing voice and lower-speed
data networks as well the content and services.
I believe that content providers and non-wireless Internet
providers will jump on this opportunity. It is the best
and the fastest way to get a high-speed data connection.
It will not be an inexpensive undertaking. However,
those who want to make use of this network and invest
in it, the network can be built quickly and revenues
can start to flow more quickly than with any network
in the US history.
If things worked out right, this network can be up and
running in a significant part of the US, potentially
years ahead of any other truly broadband technology.
In fact, some GSM/GPRS players might find it more economical
to join the NextWave system than to build out their
own 3G data systems, freeing up their limited and valuable
spectrum for voice customers. The opportunity is 'here
and now' and the industry should support this co-operative
approach for the benefit of all. There are no losers
when everyone can tap into the same capability that
energizes an overwhelming array of new applications,
devices and services for enterprises and consumers alike.
This will give a significant early boost to the broadband
wireless market making it ripe for new revenue opportunities
for all wireless operators in the years ahead.
What should NextWave do with its spectrum? I sure do
hope they give my idea its due by going with "DO."
Contact:
Outlook 4 Mobility
Web: www.outlook4mobility.com
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