|
Market
Research
January
15, 2004
Flat-to-slow optical growth likely
through 2006
UNITED
STATES -- Worldwide optical network hardware revenue
hit US $2 billion in Q3-03, a 3 percent decrease from
Q2-03, according to Infonetics Research's quarterly
worldwide market share and forecast service, optical
network hardware. After a decline in 2003, modest growth
is likely through 2006, when the market will top US
$10 billion.
Michael
Howard, principal analyst and co-founder of Infonetics
Research, said: "The optical hardware market is
stabilising. The telecom service provider capex declines
are finished or nearly finished, and they will maintain
a flat-to-slow-growth in the future. We expect optical
equipment spending worldwide to be relatively stable
from 2003 through 2006, and in North America to level
out during 2003 and then start slow growth in 2004 to
2005."
Q3-03
optical hardware revenue highlights:
-
Alcatel maintains its number one spot in worldwide
revenue market share (intelligent plus legacy) with
14 percent, followed by the same three market share
challengers from Q2-03, Huawei, Lucent and Nortel,
each with 11 percent;
-
Intelligent optical network hardware makes up 82 percent
of all optical network hardware revenue, while legacy
continues its decline at 18 percent; legacy will decline
to about 3 percent in 2006;
-
Metro networks will remain the focus in general for
some time in all regions; metro makes up 70 percent
of all optical network hardware revenue this quarter;
-
Metro WDM continues its growth, up from Q2-03 to a
total of US $243.7 million, with DWDM up 5 percent,
and the burgeoning, but smaller CWDM market up 19
percent;
-
Metro SONET/SDH makes up the lion's share (56 percent
at US $1.1 billion) of the total optical equipment
sales, led by Alcatel (16 percent) and Fujitsu (14
percent); and
-
Regional breakdown -- 33 percent Asia Pacific, 31
percent North America, 30 percent EMEA, and 7 percent
from CALA; Asia Pacific has many buildouts, China
has slowed, and India is picking up.
The
optical network hardware report tracks SONET/SDH, CWDM/DWDM
and PON hardware. Forecasts and regional market share
are updated quarterly and cover all regions (worldwide,
North America, EMEA, Asia Pacific, CALA). Companies
tracked in this service include ADVA, Alcatel, CIENA,
Cisco, Fujitsu, ECI-Lightscape, Lucent, Lumentis, Marconi,
NEC, Nortel, Siemens, Tellabs and others.
PON
to see 180 percent rise in quarterly revenue
Worldwide PON revenue reached US $27 million in Q3-03,
up 20 percent from Q2-03, and is forecasted to grow
180 percent to US $76 million in Q3-04, according to
Infonetics Research's quarterly worldwide market share
and forecast service, PON hardware. The annual PON revenue
is likely to grow 91 percent to US $102 million between
2002 and 2003, and will top US $531 million in 2006,
a CAGR of 63 percent from 2001.
Michael
Howard, principal analyst, said: "In North America,
there will be a rollout of FTTP starting soon and continuing
for the next 10 to 15 years, starting in new build situations
next year, and then gradually into neighborhoods where
the copper plant is being rehabilitated, beginning in
2005 and 2006. Service providers around the globe, particularly
in China and Japan, are beginning to install PON products
and to figure out how to profitably build business and
residential services around them."
Q3-03
trends in PON hardware market:
-
59 percent of metro PON revenue was from North America,
25 percent from Asia Pacific, 16 percent from EMEA;
-
PON is to date primarily a North American phenomenon,
although some early trials indicate that increased
adoption will follow in other geographies; this trend
will continue through 2006; and
-
A-PON will be the PON technology gorilla for the next
few years with a significant revenue lead through
2006.
Companies
tracked in this service include AFC, Alloptic, Alcatel,
FlexLight, Fujitsu, Optical Solutions, Quantum Bridge,
Salira, Terawave, and others.
Contact
Infonetics Research Inc.
Tel: +1-408-298-7999 Extn. 223
michael@infonetics.com
www.infonetics.com
|