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Wireless
July 22, 2003
Nokia vs. Microsoft: The OS war
UNITED STATES -- According to the analyst firm Probe
Group, the quest for domination of the mobile terminal
operating systems (OS) market will be led by Symbian
and archrival Microsoft. Symbian and Microsoft will
lead all the other OS vendors with 5 percent and 2.5
percent of the global market share, respectively. Linux
is likely to position for a surge in Asian markets,
particularly China by 2007.
David
Chamberlain, director, Probe Research, said: "The
ultimate outcome will be a result of political and commercial
decisions, not the technical superiority of one OS or
another. The key battle in the global handset market
will come when Symbian and Smartphone begin to reach
down to the proletarian handsets used by ordinary consumers."
He
added that the developments and changes taking place
in wireless Internet world, as well as in the way the
market has shaped up for these advanced handsets, support
this assertion. Among the significant changes in the
past year are:
- Continued
delays in the rollout of 3G networks and decline in
global PDA sales;
- Release
of Windows-powered Smartphone 2002 devices by Orange,
which was offset by the defection of handset vendors
once committed to the new Microsoft OS;
- The
acquisition of the faltering Handspring by Palm, rescuing
the company after its decision to produce only its
Palm OS Treo communicators.
While
there are strong currents in the Nokia/Microsoft war,
Chamberlain pointed out that Nokia (and, therefore,
Symbian) has the benefit of having observed from a safe
distance the PC wars of the 1990s and had time to analyze
Microsoft's role in the decline of the branded PC. Chamberlain
suggested that the ultimate success of Symbian or Microsoft
will not be at the expense of Palm, RIM or Linux (and
Microsoft PocketPC as well). These rival operating systems
will continue to serve their small core of techno-savvy
users who want more than a phone, but less than a laptop,
while away from their desks.
Contact:
Probe Group
www.probegrp.com
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