Mobility

July 20, 2006
Obtaining level-playing field is the biggest challenge: CDG

Geetanjali Babbar

• CDMA2000 3G subscribers worldwide surpassed 250 million mark in Q1-06;
• By 2008, CDMA technologies are expected to capture 40 percent market share;
• CDG now focused on market-related issues in the CDMA ecosystem;
• CDMA operators here have far less spectrum to work with compared to international norms;
• EV-DO revision A will enable the service providers to offer mobile VoIP;
• Telecom will continue to be more personal and specialised;
• All types of technologies will be converged in the handset.

NEW DELHI -- The CDMA Development Group (CDG) recently announced that the number of CDMA2000 3G subscribers worldwide surpassed 250 million in the Q1-06. The CDMA2000 operators added over 25 million new users in the first three months of the year, driven by strong growth in the Americas and Asia. CDMA2000 1xEV-DO gained a record six million new subscribers to reach 30 million users.

In the first five years of commercial introduction, CDMA2000 grew much faster than GSM and WCDMA. In the past seven months alone, CDMA2000 networks have added more subscribers than WCDMA gained in the four years since it was first introduced. A number of factors have contributed to CDMA2000 success. Solid performance, ease of migration, backward compatibility and availability of a broad range of devices are just a few.

Analysts predict that the number of 3G CDMA users will continue to grow rapidly and CDMA will capture greater market share. By 2008, CDMA technologies are expected to have over 1.2 billion users and capture 40 percent market share.

Perry LaForge, executive director of the CDG, shares his thoughts on the opportunities and challenges faced by the CDMA technologies globally.

Convergence Plus: How has the CDG evolved over the past several years?

Perry LaForge: The role of the CDG has changed somewhat. In the past, we were more focused on the technical development of the air interface standards and in proving that CDMA was a viable technology. Now that it's well accepted and all the 3G technologies are based on CDMA, we have moved into developing and supporting the applications, interoperability and market related issues in the CDMA ecosystem. As a result, our team has grown with dedicated staff for international roaming, CDMA handset aggregation, as well as country and regional offices, such as the one we opened in Delhi to support our members' needs in India.

CP: What tools and resources are you using to promote CDMA-based 3G solutions deployment in India?

PL: A number of things have to come together to make 3G services a success. The one that's been missing in India has been spectrum availability. CDMA operators here have far less spectrum to work with compared to international norms of 12 or more MHz per operator. And in India, they're serving a high density of users. So foremost, we are working to ensure that adequate spectrum is made available. After that, it's the network and terminals, of course. But with CDMA2000, the operators are in a great situation in that they already have the leading 3G platform in place today. By the end of 2006, CDMA operators will be deploying EV-DO revision A, which gives them data speeds over 3Mbps as well as the opportunity to offer mobile VoIP. Finally, it's in making sure that applications that are useful and relevant to a particular market are available.

CP: Please comment on the ongoing “war of words” between CDMA and GSM operators. Is it justified to say that CDMA would account for up to 50 percent of worldwide subscribers by 2010?

PL: If you look at how our industry is evolving, operators and their subscribers are rapidly moving away from 2G technologies to 3G. GSM was the most successful 2G technology. But as I mentioned, all the 3G technologies are based on CDMA. CDMA2000, for instance, now has over 250 million subscribers globally. Combining that with W-CDMA, industry analysts forecast that 2G subscribers, including GSM, will begin to decline starting in 2008, and that in the next decade 3G CDMA-based subscribers will represent a majority of all worldwide mobile users. This is a very exciting time for our industry as you can tell.

CP: How would you create a level-playing field for both GSM as well as CDMA operators? How do other countries with such a problem resolve this issue?

PL: It's very straightforward. Simply follow international best practices and award spectrum on a technology neutral basis in equal amounts to operators, independent of whether they deploy CDMA or GSM. This eliminates the penalty that CDMA operators work under in India by choosing a more efficient technology. In addition, delink the subscriber numbers as a criterion for the piecemeal release of spectrum. This creates real problems to operators in efficiently planning their networks.

CP: What's the most exciting thing happening in your group in the year ahead?

PL: The commercial release of 1xEV-DO revision A is probably the most exciting. With this, CDMA jumps far ahead of all the 3G technnologies by offering 3.1Mbps to the users, but also up to 1.8Mbps from a user terminal. As more traffic becomes bi-directional with video blogs and the like, this is a big advance. It also gives us the opportunity to exploit the all-IP nature of the CDMA network, including VoIP. This saves network resources, significantly reducing the cost for the operator and allowing him to serve even more users more economically.

CP: At this point, what would you say are the biggest challenges for CDMA?

PL: Our biggest challenge is in getting the message out regarding the success of CDMA to date and its strong evolution path going forward. Looking ahead, there seems to be some interest in convergence in 4G. CDMA, through revision A, then B, and finally C, get us there sooner than any other technology roadmap. We want to make sure everyone knows of the incredible things happening on CDMA devices on CDMA networks around the world, from meeting basic voice services in villages, to the fastest most advanced 3G mobile services available. In India, due the political nature of the issue, the biggest challenge will be obtaining the level playing field for CDMA operators and ensuring that they have sufficient spectrum.

CP: What will the telecom market look like in 10 years?

PL: Telecom will continue to be more personal and more specialised. The one size fits all model is how every new industry starts out. But with software advances allowing customised user interfaces and even software-defined radios, we'll see customisation continue. Wireless will remain key, and more wireless devices will be employed in areas that allow machine-to-machine communication.

Vending machines, automobiles and other devices that would surprise us today, will all be equipped to communicate via 3G or 4G wireless communication networks. Video and text to voice applications will also play a much larger role than they do today. I do believe that all types of technology will be converged in the handset. You will continue to see CDMA solutions lead the way, and combined with other technologies. GSM will begin to fade away as AMPS did some years ago. As I said earlier, it's an exciting time for us in this industry.