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Expert
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May
27, 2004
Market demand for flash memory growing
Geetanjali
Wadhwa & Pradeep Chakraborty
BANGALORE
-- Infineon Technologies AG, Munich, Germany, offers
semiconductor and system solutions for the automotive
and industrial sectors, for applications in the wired
communications markets, secure mobile solutions as well
as memory products. With a global presence, Infineon
operates in the US from San Jose, CA, in the Asia-Pacific
region from Singapore and in Japan from Tokyo. In the
fiscal year 2002 (ending September), the company achieved
sales of Euro 5.21 billion with about 30,400 employees
worldwide.
Convergence
Plus met up with Thomas Simonis, managing director,
Infineon Technologies India Pvt. Ltd., to discuss more
on the status of products that use flash memory. Excerpts
from an interview:
Convergence
Plus: Is there a shortage for all products that use
flash memory? There were indications that high-end electronics
such as digital cameras would be prioritized with the
flash memory supply. Has that been so? Do camera phones
count in the top-priority list?
Thomas
Simonis:
According to analysts, flash cards for digital cameras
are currently consuming around 50 percent of the NAND-compatible
Flash devices followed by USB-sticks and mobile phones
with about 15 percent demand share each. Market demand
for Flash memory is growing considerably and we believe
that it still exceeds the supply side although the supply
was higher in early 2004 than in late 2003.
CP:
Are camera phone makers able to obtain memory chips
from alternative flash memory suppliers? Which suppliers
are these?
TS:
In
general OEM's try to have second source available.
CP:
How is price being affected by the flash memory supply?
By how much is the price increasing/decreasing over
the last six months? Please supply tables/graphs for
this. At what price points would supply of camera phones
grow substantially?
TS:
According
to DRAM eXchange, spot prices for the main volume 512Mbit
NAND Flash have declined from around US $17 beginning
of January 2004 to around US $10 lately due to added
capacity in the flash market. We do not see flash memory
as the hindering or pushing element in camera phone
sales and thus cannot comment on the interaction of
price and camera phone growth.
CP:
When is the price and supply situation expected to stabilise
and what are flash memory makers doing to alleviate
this? What are makers planning in anticipation of the
time flash memory supply stabilizes?
TS:
We believe that the flash market will be the fastest
growing memory market in the next years. According to
Gartner Dataquest, NAND Flash bit-shipments are likely
to reach a CAGR of over 80 percent between 2003 and
2008. Nonetheless, with Flash suppliers adding new capacities
and new players entering the market, the NAND Flash
market will increasingly look like a commodity market
where cost leadership will be important. We believe
that especially leading DRAM manufacturers like us will
have good chances to play a dominant role.
CP:
What are the current product and design trends? What's
ahead?
TS:
Infineon Technologies Flash currently offers NAND compatible
512Mbit TwinFlash components with higher densities to
follow soon. Further, we offer SD-Cards as well as MMC-Cards
(Infineon was the co-inventor of MMC cards) with other
formats to follow in the next months. We will expand
our productline to address needs in mobile applications
and deliver faster products at higher density.
CP:
What is Infineon's role in the national ID card initiative?
TS:
We are approaching the government through various forums
such as SCAFI to finalise the specs of the NID in consultation
with several system integrators and card manufacturers.
CP:
What sort of opportunities will the national ID card
provide for local manufacturers?
TS:
It will allow global and local card manufacturer's to
invest in card manufacturing and personalization.
CP:
How and when will the smart card be used as a cash card?
TS:
There
is a pilot due sometime in the last quarter of this
year. It is basically a multiplication card and e-purse
is one of the applications.
CP:
What sort of applications can we expect from multi-application
smart cards?
TS:
Applications
like e-ticketing/driving license/Bank ATM/e-cash besides
identification.
CP:
What is the relevance of and what are your plans for
contact less smart cards for India?
TS:
Contact less is definitely the future of the Indian
Smart card industry besides worldwide people are moving
toward contact less.
CP: The world's first SMS-based m-commerce service
verified by visa took place last year. When can such
an initiative take place in India?
TS:
It
will take time at least few years.
CP:
How relevant are chip-based bank cards, given that they
are very secure for India?
TS:
In India as the use of credit cards will increase hacking,
besides offline verification is not possible with the
current payment through credit card, which will be possible
using the Smart card as the authorisation can happen
using the POS.
CP:
How can smart cards be used for ticketing applications?
TS:
We have a project that will be launched in Mumbai and
it can be used for ticketing as well apart from banking.
So you can transfer money from your account to the card
and the ticket POS will debit the required amount from
your card.
CP:
What is the relevance of 64K/128K memory cards for operators?
TS:
It will pick up as MMS/online games get more popular.
Contact:
Infineon Technologies India Pvt. Ltd.
www.infineon.com
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